Winnipeg Jets at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2023-03-03 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 6 - 3 Winnipeg Jets

Win Probability

EDM: 61.1%

WPG: 38.9%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.37

WPG: 2.83

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 50%

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Stuart Skinner	28	25	3	89.3%	2.17	0	-0.83
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	33	27	6	81.8%	4.47	4	-1.53

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • EDM at home vs WPG: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-08	WPG 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-12-29	WPG 1 - 3 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-12-06	EDM 6 - 2 WPG	EDM	EDM
2025-04-13	WPG 1 - 4 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-03-20	EDM 3 - 4 WPG	WPG	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	20	0	1.34
1	WPG	8	0	0.45
2	EDM	16	2	2.01
2	WPG	12	0	0.47
3	EDM	14	2	1.12
3	WPG	15	0	1.25

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 6 - 3 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.4 - 2.8