Montreal Canadiens at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions

2023-03-03 • Honda Center

Anaheim Ducks 3 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

ANA: 57.5%

MTL: 42.5%

Expected Goals

ANA: 3.03

MTL: 3.30

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 73%

Over 6.5: 57%

ANA

John Gibson - 13-27-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.54 GAA

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ANA	John Gibson	28	26	2	92.9%	2.60	1	0.60
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	33	30	3	90.9%	2.62	1	-0.38

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • ANA at home vs MTL: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-15	MTL 3 - 4 ANA	ANA	MTL
2026-03-06	ANA 6 - 5 MTL	ANA	ANA
2025-02-02	ANA 3 - 2 MTL	ANA	MTL
2024-12-09	MTL 3 - 2 ANA	MTL	MTL
2024-02-13	MTL 5 - 0 ANA	MTL	MTL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ANA	17	0	0.74
1	MTL	14	0	0.95
2	ANA	15	1	1.14
2	MTL	10	0	0.39
3	ANA	11	0	0.74
3	MTL	16	1	1.26

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Anaheim Ducks 3 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.0 - 3.3