Detroit Red Wings at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2023-03-04 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 4 - 1 Detroit Red Wings

Win Probability

NYI: 62.8%

DET: 37.2%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.12

DET: 2.91

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

DET

M. Hellberg

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	23	22	1	95.7%	1.22	0	0.22
DET	M. Hellberg	36	32	4	88.9%	2.78	0	-1.22

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • NYI at home vs DET: 4-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-16	DET 3 - 2 NYI	DET	DET
2025-11-20	DET 0 - 5 NYI	NYI	DET
2025-10-23	NYI 7 - 2 DET	NYI	NYI
2024-11-25	NYI 2 - 4 DET	DET	NYI
2024-11-21	DET 2 - 1 NYI	DET	DET

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	NYI	20	0.95
1	DET	6	0.17
2	NYI	17	0.88
2	DET	8	0.37
3	NYI	16	0.96
3	DET	15	0.68

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 4 - 1 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.1 - 2.9