Washington Capitals at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions
2023-03-04 • SAP Center at San Jose
San Jose Sharks 3 - 8 Washington Capitals
🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
SJS: 51.4%
WSH: 48.6%
Expected Goals
SJS: 3.08
WSH: 2.94
Total Goals
Median: 6.7
Over 5.5: 71%
Over 6.5: 57%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
SJS
K. Kahkonen
WSH
D. Kuemper
| Stat | SJS | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | — | — |
| Last 5 SV% | — | — |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | — | — |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Goalie Game Metrics
| Team | Goalie | SA | Saves | GA | SV% | xGA | HD Faced | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | K. Kahkonen | 30 | 22 | 8 | 73.3% | 2.51 | 1 | -5.49 |
| WSH | D. Kuemper | 41 | 38 | 3 | 92.7% | 3.94 | 3 | 0.94 |
SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • SJS at home vs WSH: 1-4
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-15 | WSH 2 - 3 SJS | SJS | WSH |
| 2025-12-03 | SJS 1 - 7 WSH | WSH | WSH |
| 2025-03-15 | SJS 1 - 5 WSH | WSH | WSH |
| 2024-12-03 | WSH 1 - 2 SJS | SJS | WSH |
| 2023-11-27 | SJS 2 - 1 WSH | SJS | SJS |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SJS | 25 | 1 | 1.69 |
| 1 | WSH | 7 | 1 | 0.46 |
| 2 | SJS | 12 | 1 | 1.17 |
| 2 | WSH | 20 | 0 | 1.10 |
| 3 | SJS | 15 | 1 | 1.09 |
| 3 | WSH | 13 | 0 | 0.96 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 51.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 11.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
San Jose Sharks 3 - 8 Washington Capitals
Expected: 3.1 - 2.9
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