Toronto Maple Leafs at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2023-03-04 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 4 - 1 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Win (57% underdog)

Win Probability

VAN: 43.0%

TOR: 57.0%

Expected Goals

VAN: 3.00

TOR: 3.39

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

VAN

Thatcher Demko - 8-8-0 | 0.905 SV% | 2.72 GAA

TOR

Matt Murray - 1-1-0 | 0.879 SV% | 3.54 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	Thatcher Demko	37	36	1	97.3%	3.12	2	2.12
TOR	Matt Murray	24	20	4	83.3%	3.43	2	-0.57

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • VAN at home vs TOR: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-31	VAN 2 - 3 TOR	TOR	VAN
2026-01-10	TOR 5 - 0 VAN	TOR	TOR
2025-02-08	VAN 2 - 1 TOR	VAN	TOR
2025-01-11	TOR 0 - 3 VAN	VAN	TOR
2024-01-20	VAN 6 - 4 TOR	VAN	VAN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	5	0	0.22
1	TOR	17	2	1.36
2	VAN	18	1	1.91
2	TOR	13	0	0.65
3	VAN	10	1	1.30
3	TOR	18	0	1.11

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Vancouver Canucks 4 - 1 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.0 - 3.4