Tampa Bay Lightning at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2023-03-05 • PNC Arena

Carolina Hurricanes 6 - 0 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

CAR: 66.1%

TBL: 33.9%

Expected Goals

CAR: 3.98

TBL: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 54%

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Frederik Andersen	14	14	0	100.0%	1.39	0	1.39
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	38	32	6	84.2%	2.97	0	-3.03

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • CAR at home vs TBL: 4-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	TBL 2 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-02-26	CAR 5 - 4 TBL	CAR	CAR
2025-12-20	TBL 6 - 4 CAR	TBL	TBL
2025-03-11	CAR 4 - 1 TBL	CAR	CAR
2025-01-07	TBL 3 - 2 CAR	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	CAR	15	0.64
1	TBL	5	0.09
2	CAR	15	1.12
2	TBL	6	0.29
3	CAR	17	1.20
3	TBL	16	1.01

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 66.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 7.0

Score Breakdown

Carolina Hurricanes 6 - 0 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 4.0 - 3.0