Ottawa Senators at Chicago Blackhawks NHL Predictions

2023-03-06 • United Center

Chicago Blackhawks 5 - 0 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Win (62% underdog)

Win Probability

CHI: 38.3%

OTT: 61.7%

Expected Goals

CHI: 2.64

OTT: 3.38

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 49%

CHI

A. Stalock

OTT

Mads Sogaard - 1-1-0 | 0.800 SV% | 5.24 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CHI	A. Stalock	35	35	0	100.0%	2.92	1	2.92
OTT	Mads Sogaard	21	16	5	76.2%	2.62	3	-2.38

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • CHI at home vs OTT: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-20	OTT 6 - 4 CHI	OTT	OTT
2025-10-28	CHI 7 - 3 OTT	CHI	CHI
2025-04-15	OTT 3 - 4 CHI	CHI	OTT
2025-03-05	CHI 3 - 4 OTT	OTT	OTT
2024-03-28	OTT 2 - 0 CHI	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CHI	6	1	0.55
1	OTT	16	0	1.00
2	CHI	13	1	0.96
2	OTT	25	1	1.47
3	CHI	12	1	1.12
3	OTT	11	0	0.46

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Chicago Blackhawks 5 - 0 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 2.6 - 3.4