Carolina Hurricanes at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2023-03-07 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 4 Carolina Hurricanes (SO)

Win Probability

MTL: 33.7%

CAR: 66.3%

Expected Goals

MTL: 1.93

CAR: 3.44

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 49%

MTL

J. Allen

CAR

A. Raanta

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	J. Allen	44	38	6	86.4%	6.22	4	0.22
CAR	A. Raanta	30	25	5	83.3%	4.71	4	-0.29

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • MTL at home vs CAR: 3-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-29	CAR 6 - 1 MTL	CAR	CAR
2026-05-27	MTL 0 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-05-25	MTL 2 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-05-23	CAR 3 - 2 MTL	CAR	CAR
2026-05-21	CAR 2 - 6 MTL	MTL	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	16	1	1.50
1	CAR	12	0	0.59
2	MTL	11	1	0.71
2	CAR	20	0	1.19
3	MTL	8	0	0.57
3	CAR	23	1	1.21
4	MTL	1	0	0.02
4	CAR	6	0	0.40
5	MTL	6	2	1.91
5	CAR	6	3	2.82

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 66.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.4

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 4 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 1.9 - 3.4