Columbus Blue Jackets at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2023-03-07 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 4 Columbus Blue Jackets (OT)

Win Probability

PIT: 61.1%

CBJ: 38.9%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.59

CBJ: 2.87

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 53%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	27	23	4	85.2%	2.98	3	-1.02
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	47	42	5	89.4%	4.55	1	-0.45

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • PIT at home vs CBJ: 7-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-17	PIT 3 - 4 CBJ	CBJ	PIT
2026-01-04	CBJ 4 - 5 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-11-28	CBJ 3 - 4 PIT	PIT	CBJ
2025-10-25	PIT 4 - 5 CBJ	CBJ	CBJ
2025-03-21	PIT 6 - 3 CBJ	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	12	1	0.82
1	CBJ	13	1	1.25
2	PIT	25	0	1.43
2	CBJ	12	0	0.74
3	PIT	25	0	1.54
3	CBJ	13	2	0.99
4	PIT	8	0	0.76
4	CBJ	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 4 Columbus Blue Jackets

Expected: 3.6 - 2.9