Philadelphia Flyers at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2023-03-07 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

Win Probability

TBL: 51.8%

PHI: 48.2%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.33

PHI: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 52%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

PHI

C. Hart

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	35	33	2	94.3%	2.70	1	0.70
PHI	C. Hart	39	34	5	87.2%	3.02	1	-1.98

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • TBL at home vs PHI: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-12	PHI 1 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-01-10	PHI 2 - 7 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-24	TBL 3 - 0 PHI	TBL	TBL
2025-03-17	TBL 2 - 0 PHI	TBL	TBL
2025-03-13	PHI 4 - 3 TBL	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	18	0	0.87
1	PHI	9	0	0.54
2	TBL	12	0	1.00
2	PHI	22	1	1.16
3	TBL	19	1	1.14
3	PHI	14	0	1.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.3 - 3.1