Toronto Maple Leafs at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2023-03-07 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 3 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

NJD: 40.2%

TOR: 59.8%

Expected Goals

NJD: 2.96

TOR: 3.36

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 54%

NJD

V. Vanecek

TOR

I. Samsonov

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NJD	V. Vanecek	25	21	4	84.0%	3.03	2	-0.97
TOR	I. Samsonov	33	30	3	90.9%	4.30	4	1.30

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • NJD at home vs TOR: 1-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-04	NJD 4 - 3 TOR	NJD	TOR
2025-12-30	TOR 4 - 0 NJD	TOR	TOR
2025-10-21	TOR 2 - 5 NJD	NJD	TOR
2025-01-16	TOR 4 - 3 NJD	TOR	TOR
2024-12-10	NJD 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	20	1	1.93
1	TOR	10	0	0.95
2	NJD	17	2	1.59
2	TOR	18	0	1.04
3	NJD	11	1	0.78
3	TOR	8	2	1.04

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

New Jersey Devils 3 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.0 - 3.4