Vegas Golden Knights at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2023-03-07 • FLA Live Arena

Florida Panthers 2 - 1 Vegas Golden Knights

Win Probability

FLA: 50.3%

VGK: 49.7%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.01

VGK: 3.15

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 52%

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	23	22	1	95.7%	1.79	0	0.79
VGK	Adin Hill	34	32	2	94.1%	2.85	1	0.85

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • FLA at home vs VGK: 6-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-10	VGK 2 - 3 FLA	FLA	FLA
2025-10-25	FLA 3 - 0 VGK	FLA	FLA
2025-01-26	VGK 4 - 1 FLA	VGK	VGK
2024-10-19	FLA 4 - 3 VGK	FLA	FLA
2024-01-04	VGK 1 - 4 FLA	FLA	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	15	0	1.19
1	VGK	11	0	0.55
2	FLA	15	0	0.81
2	VGK	9	0	0.65
3	FLA	14	1	0.84
3	VGK	12	0	0.58

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 2 - 1 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2