Calgary Flames at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2023-03-07 • Xcel Energy Center

Minnesota Wild 0 - 1 Calgary Flames (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)

Win Probability

MIN: 63.0%

CGY: 37.0%

Expected Goals

MIN: 2.95

CGY: 2.98

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

CGY

J. Markstrom

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	30	28	2	93.3%	2.57	3	0.57
CGY	J. Markstrom	42	41	1	97.6%	4.28	1	3.28

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • MIN at home vs CGY: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-29	MIN 4 - 1 CGY	MIN	MIN
2025-12-04	CGY 4 - 1 MIN	CGY	CGY
2025-11-09	MIN 2 - 0 CGY	MIN	CGY
2025-04-11	CGY 4 - 2 MIN	CGY	MIN
2025-01-25	MIN 4 - 5 CGY	CGY	MIN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	18	0	1.24
1	CGY	14	1	0.90
2	MIN	15	0	1.05
2	CGY	8	1	0.74
3	MIN	21	1	1.61
3	CGY	10	1	0.53
4	MIN	2	0	0.08
4	CGY	3	0	0.14
5	MIN	4	0	0.30
5	CGY	4	0	0.27

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 63.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 1.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Minnesota Wild 0 - 1 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.0 - 3.0