St. Louis Blues at Arizona Coyotes NHL Predictions

2023-03-07 • Mullett Arena

Arizona Coyotes 6 - 2 St. Louis Blues

Win Probability

ARI: 51.3%

STL: 48.7%

Expected Goals

ARI: 3.10

STL: 2.76

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 52%

ARI

K. Vejmelka - 12-21-0 | 0.891 SV% | 3.67 GAA

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ARI	K. Vejmelka	42	40	2	95.2%	3.59	1	1.59
STL	Jordan Binnington	27	21	6	77.8%	2.52	1	-3.48

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • ARI at home vs STL: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2023-12-02	ARI 4 - 1 STL	ARI	ARI
2023-11-22	ARI 5 - 6 STL	STL	ARI
2023-11-09	STL 2 - 1 ARI	STL	ARI
2023-10-19	STL 2 - 6 ARI	ARI	STL
2023-03-07	ARI 6 - 2 STL	ARI	ARI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ARI	12	0	0.36
1	STL	17	0	1.11
2	ARI	12	0	1.13
2	STL	15	1	1.36
3	ARI	10	1	1.03
3	STL	21	0	1.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Arizona Coyotes 6 - 2 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.1 - 2.8