Dallas Stars at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2023-03-09 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 10 Dallas Stars

Win Probability

BUF: 47.1%

DAL: 52.9%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.21

DAL: 3.34

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 46%

BUF

E. Comrie

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	E. Comrie	49	39	10	79.6%	5.26	2	-4.74
DAL	Jake Oettinger	29	25	4	86.2%	2.84	2	-1.16

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • BUF at home vs DAL: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	BUF 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	BUF
2025-12-31	DAL 1 - 4 BUF	BUF	DAL
2024-12-31	DAL 4 - 2 BUF	DAL	DAL
2024-10-22	BUF 4 - 2 DAL	BUF	BUF
2024-04-09	DAL 3 - 2 BUF	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	11	1	0.95
1	DAL	17	0	1.70
2	BUF	9	0	0.33
2	DAL	23	2	2.31
3	BUF	19	1	1.56
3	DAL	18	0	1.25

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 14.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 10 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.2 - 3.3