Edmonton Oilers at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2023-03-09 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 2 - 3 Edmonton Oilers

Win Probability

BOS: 46.6%

EDM: 53.4%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.14

EDM: 3.24

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 49%

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	22	19	3	86.4%	3.84	2	0.84
EDM	Stuart Skinner	28	26	2	92.9%	2.29	1	0.29

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • BOS at home vs EDM: 0-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-31	EDM 2 - 6 BOS	BOS	BOS
2025-12-18	BOS 1 - 3 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-01-07	BOS 0 - 4 EDM	EDM	EDM
2024-12-19	EDM 3 - 2 BOS	EDM	EDM
2024-03-05	BOS 1 - 2 EDM	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	13	1	0.88
1	EDM	8	0	0.91
2	BOS	12	0	0.65
2	EDM	9	0	0.48
3	BOS	12	0	0.76
3	EDM	14	2	2.44

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 2 - 3 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2