New York Rangers at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2023-03-09 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 4 New York Rangers (SO)

Win Probability

MTL: 47.4%

NYR: 52.6%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.85

NYR: 3.68

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 49%

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	35	31	4	88.6%	3.92	2	-0.08
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	27	24	3	88.9%	3.07	3	0.07

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • MTL at home vs NYR: 2-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	NYR 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-12-13	NYR 5 - 4 MTL	NYR	NYR
2025-10-18	MTL 3 - 4 NYR	NYR	MTL
2025-01-19	MTL 5 - 4 NYR	MTL	MTL
2024-11-30	NYR 4 - 3 MTL	NYR	NYR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	12	1	1.06
1	NYR	12	1	0.99
2	MTL	10	2	0.77
2	NYR	19	0	1.31
3	MTL	6	0	0.49
3	NYR	10	0	0.45
4	MTL	5	0	0.55
4	NYR	3	0	0.19
5	MTL	3	0	0.20
5	NYR	2	1	0.99

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 4 New York Rangers

Expected: 2.8 - 3.7