Vegas Golden Knights at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2023-03-09 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 54.3%

VGK: 45.7%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.36

VGK: 3.06

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 51%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

VGK

J. Quick

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	21	17	4	81.0%	3.06	2	-0.94
VGK	J. Quick	37	34	3	91.9%	3.70	2	0.70

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • TBL at home vs VGK: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-06	VGK 3 - 6 TBL	TBL	VGK
2025-10-26	TBL 2 - 1 VGK	TBL	TBL
2025-03-23	VGK 4 - 2 TBL	VGK	VGK
2024-10-17	TBL 4 - 3 VGK	TBL	VGK
2024-03-19	VGK 3 - 5 TBL	TBL	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	12	0	0.76
1	VGK	7	0	0.41
2	TBL	16	0	0.57
2	VGK	9	0	0.39
3	TBL	25	2	2.12
3	VGK	9	1	1.12
4	TBL	2	0	0.25
4	VGK	3	1	1.15

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.4 - 3.1