Nashville Predators at Arizona Coyotes NHL Predictions

2023-03-09 • Mullett Arena

Arizona Coyotes 4 - 1 Nashville Predators

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

Win Probability

ARI: 46.4%

NSH: 53.6%

Expected Goals

ARI: 2.96

NSH: 3.33

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 72%

Over 6.5: 53%

ARI

I. Prosvetov

NSH

Juuse Saros - 15-13-3 | 0.897 SV% | 2.93 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ARI	I. Prosvetov	40	39	1	97.5%	4.41	3	3.41
NSH	Juuse Saros	43	39	4	90.7%	4.37	4	0.37

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • ARI at home vs NSH: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2024-03-28	ARI 8 - 4 NSH	ARI	NSH
2024-02-10	NSH 5 - 4 ARI	NSH	NSH
2024-01-20	ARI 3 - 2 NSH	ARI	NSH
2023-11-11	NSH 5 - 7 ARI	ARI	NSH
2023-03-09	ARI 4 - 1 NSH	ARI	NSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ARI	22	0	0.88
1	NSH	13	0	1.01
2	ARI	20	0	1.36
2	NSH	22	2	1.90
3	ARI	15	4	2.12
3	NSH	25	1	1.51

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Arizona Coyotes 4 - 1 Nashville Predators

Expected: 3.0 - 3.3