Anaheim Ducks at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2023-03-10 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 1 - 3 Anaheim Ducks

🚨 Upset Loss (72% underdog)

Win Probability

CGY: 71.8%

ANA: 28.2%

Expected Goals

CGY: 4.27

ANA: 2.39

Total Goals

Median: 7.1

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 56%

CGY

J. Markstrom

ANA

John Gibson - 13-27-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.54 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	J. Markstrom	18	15	3	83.3%	2.31	2	-0.69
ANA	John Gibson	37	36	1	97.3%	3.15	2	2.15

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • CGY at home vs ANA: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	ANA 3 - 5 CGY	CGY	CGY
2026-03-26	CGY 2 - 3 ANA	ANA	ANA
2026-03-01	ANA 3 - 2 CGY	ANA	ANA
2026-01-25	CGY 3 - 4 ANA	ANA	ANA
2025-04-09	ANA 4 - 3 CGY	ANA	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	18	1	1.15
1	ANA	7	0	0.46
2	CGY	10	1	0.88
2	ANA	8	0	0.55
3	CGY	23	0	1.12
3	ANA	9	2	1.30

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 71.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 1 - 3 Anaheim Ducks

Expected: 4.3 - 2.4