Philadelphia Flyers at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2023-03-11 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 1 Philadelphia Flyers

Win Probability

PIT: 57.7%

PHI: 42.3%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.25

PHI: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 53%

PIT

C. DeSmith

PHI

C. Hart

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	C. DeSmith	32	31	1	96.9%	1.88	0	0.88
PHI	C. Hart	32	27	5	84.4%	3.22	1	-1.78

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • PIT at home vs PHI: 9-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-29	PHI 1 - 0 PIT	PHI	PIT
2026-04-27	PIT 3 - 2 PHI	PIT	PIT
2026-04-25	PHI 2 - 4 PIT	PIT	PHI
2026-04-22	PHI 5 - 2 PIT	PHI	PIT
2026-04-20	PIT 0 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	7	0	0.44
1	PHI	17	0	0.57
2	PIT	22	0	1.46
2	PHI	11	0	0.52
3	PIT	12	1	1.33
3	PHI	15	0	0.78

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 1 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0