New York Rangers at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2023-03-11 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 1 - 2 New York Rangers (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 52.8%

NYR: 47.2%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.19

NYR: 3.15

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 71%

Over 6.5: 54%

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	26	24	2	92.3%	2.29	0	0.29
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	33	32	1	97.0%	3.22	1	2.22

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • BUF at home vs NYR: 2-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-08	NYR 3 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-01-08	NYR 2 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-10-09	BUF 0 - 4 NYR	NYR	NYR
2025-02-22	BUF 8 - 2 NYR	BUF	NYR
2024-12-11	BUF 2 - 3 NYR	NYR	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	9	0	0.67
1	NYR	11	0	0.53
2	BUF	14	0	0.84
2	NYR	9	0	0.44
3	BUF	20	1	1.71
3	NYR	13	0	0.82
4	BUF	0	0	0.00
4	NYR	5	0	0.50

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 1 - 2 New York Rangers

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1