Edmonton Oilers at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2023-03-11 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 7 - 4 Edmonton Oilers

Win Probability

TOR: 51.2%

EDM: 48.8%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.13

EDM: 3.02

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 72%

Over 6.5: 54%

TOR

Matt Murray - 1-1-0 | 0.879 SV% | 3.54 GAA

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Matt Murray	26	22	4	84.6%	2.77	1	-1.23
EDM	Stuart Skinner	38	31	7	81.6%	4.53	3	-2.47

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • TOR at home vs EDM: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-03	EDM 2 - 5 TOR	TOR	EDM
2025-12-13	TOR 3 - 6 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-02-01	EDM 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	EDM
2024-11-16	TOR 4 - 3 EDM	TOR	EDM
2024-03-23	TOR 6 - 3 EDM	TOR	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	16	1	1.15
1	EDM	12	0	0.80
2	TOR	22	0	1.79
2	EDM	13	0	0.44
3	TOR	13	2	1.58
3	EDM	15	1	1.53

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 7 - 4 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0