New Jersey Devils at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2023-03-11 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 1 - 3 New Jersey Devils

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 51.9%

NJD: 48.1%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.03

NJD: 3.21

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 73%

Over 6.5: 55%

MTL

J. Allen

NJD

A. Schmid

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	J. Allen	37	34	3	91.9%	3.49	3	0.49
NJD	A. Schmid	24	23	1	95.8%	1.95	1	0.95

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • MTL at home vs NJD: 0-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-05	MTL 0 - 3 NJD	NJD	NJD
2026-04-04	NJD 3 - 4 MTL	MTL	NJD
2025-11-06	NJD 4 - 3 MTL	NJD	NJD
2025-02-08	MTL 0 - 4 NJD	NJD	NJD
2025-01-25	MTL 3 - 4 NJD	NJD	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	10	0	0.54
1	NJD	14	0	0.72
2	MTL	12	1	0.70
2	NJD	20	1	1.12
3	MTL	10	0	0.71
3	NJD	14	2	1.65

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 1 - 3 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2