Winnipeg Jets at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2023-03-11 • FLA Live Arena

Florida Panthers 4 - 5 Winnipeg Jets (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

FLA: 51.0%

WPG: 49.0%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.41

WPG: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 52%

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	27	22	5	81.5%	2.51	0	-2.49
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	48	44	4	91.7%	4.61	1	0.61

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • FLA at home vs WPG: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-31	FLA 1 - 2 WPG	WPG	FLA
2026-01-22	WPG 1 - 2 FLA	FLA	FLA
2024-11-19	WPG 6 - 3 FLA	WPG	FLA
2024-11-16	FLA 5 - 0 WPG	FLA	FLA
2023-11-24	FLA 0 - 3 WPG	WPG	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	22	0	1.46
1	WPG	13	0	1.00
2	FLA	22	1	1.49
2	WPG	11	0	0.67
3	FLA	12	0	1.06
3	WPG	7	0	0.45
4	FLA	5	0	0.60
4	WPG	3	0	0.38

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 4 - 5 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.4 - 3.2