Washington Capitals at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2023-03-11 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 1 - 5 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 52.5%

WSH: 47.5%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.03

WSH: 3.41

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 52%

NYI

Semyon Varlamov - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

WSH

D. Kuemper

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Semyon Varlamov	27	22	5	81.5%	2.23	0	-2.77
WSH	D. Kuemper	19	18	1	94.7%	3.19	3	2.19

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • NYI at home vs WSH: 3-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-02	WSH 4 - 1 NYI	WSH	WSH
2025-11-30	NYI 1 - 4 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-10-31	WSH 1 - 3 NYI	NYI	WSH
2025-10-11	NYI 2 - 4 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-04-15	NYI 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	17	2	1.73
1	WSH	15	0	0.69
2	NYI	15	0	0.88
2	WSH	10	0	0.87
3	NYI	7	1	0.58
3	WSH	10	0	0.66

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 1 - 5 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.0 - 3.4