Minnesota Wild at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2023-03-11 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 2 - 5 Minnesota Wild

🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)

Win Probability

SJS: 62.9%

MIN: 37.1%

Expected Goals

SJS: 3.16

MIN: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 72%

Over 6.5: 54%

SJS

J. Reimer

MIN

Marc-Andre Fleury - 14-9-1 | 0.899 SV% | 2.93 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	J. Reimer	29	24	5	82.8%	3.50	6	-1.50
MIN	Marc-Andre Fleury	37	35	2	94.6%	3.69	3	1.69

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • SJS at home vs MIN: 2-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-31	SJS 4 - 3 MIN	SJS	MIN
2025-11-11	MIN 1 - 2 SJS	SJS	MIN
2025-10-26	MIN 5 - 6 SJS	SJS	SJS
2025-04-09	MIN 8 - 7 SJS	MIN	MIN
2025-01-11	SJS 1 - 3 MIN	MIN	MIN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	23	0	1.40
1	MIN	9	1	0.60
2	SJS	13	1	1.12
2	MIN	20	2	1.52
3	SJS	13	2	1.17
3	MIN	15	3	1.37

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 2 - 5 Minnesota Wild

Expected: 3.2 - 2.9