Winnipeg Jets at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2023-03-12 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 3 Winnipeg Jets

🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 61.7%

WPG: 38.3%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.64

WPG: 3.12

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 49%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	22	19	3	86.4%	2.86	2	-0.14
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	35	33	2	94.3%	3.19	1	1.19

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • TBL at home vs WPG: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-05	WPG 4 - 1 TBL	WPG	TBL
2026-01-29	TBL 4 - 1 WPG	TBL	TBL
2024-11-14	TBL 4 - 1 WPG	TBL	TBL
2024-11-03	WPG 7 - 4 TBL	WPG	WPG
2024-01-02	WPG 4 - 2 TBL	WPG	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	11	1	0.67
1	WPG	8	0	0.46
2	TBL	23	0	1.53
2	WPG	9	1	0.90
3	TBL	18	0	0.99
3	WPG	15	1	1.50

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 3 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.6 - 3.1