Ottawa Senators at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2023-03-12 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 5 - 1 Ottawa Senators

Win Probability

CGY: 63.8%

OTT: 36.2%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.73

OTT: 3.04

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 51%

CGY

J. Markstrom

OTT

K. Mandolese

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	J. Markstrom	31	30	1	96.8%	2.36	1	1.36
OTT	K. Mandolese	39	34	5	87.2%	5.03	1	0.03

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • CGY at home vs OTT: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-05	CGY 1 - 4 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-10-30	OTT 4 - 3 CGY	OTT	OTT
2024-12-19	CGY 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2024-11-25	OTT 4 - 3 CGY	OTT	OTT
2024-01-09	CGY 6 - 3 OTT	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	24	1	1.92
1	OTT	13	1	1.16
2	CGY	14	0	1.23
2	OTT	14	0	0.64
3	CGY	22	0	1.89
3	OTT	10	0	0.57

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 5 - 1 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.7 - 3.0