Buffalo Sabres at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2023-03-13 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 4 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 56.4%

BUF: 43.6%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.47

BUF: 3.04

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 52%

TOR

Matt Murray - 1-1-0 | 0.879 SV% | 3.54 GAA

BUF

C. Anderson

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Matt Murray	29	25	4	86.2%	3.66	5	-0.34
BUF	C. Anderson	28	25	3	89.3%	2.07	0	-0.93

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 61% • TOR at home vs BUF: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	BUF 3 - 2 TOR	BUF	BUF
2026-01-27	TOR 4 - 7 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-10-25	TOR 4 - 3 BUF	TOR	TOR
2025-10-24	BUF 5 - 3 TOR	BUF	TOR
2025-04-15	BUF 0 - 4 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	17	0	0.76
1	BUF	6	0	0.33
2	TOR	4	0	0.33
2	BUF	22	1	1.22
3	TOR	18	0	0.98
3	BUF	12	4	2.11

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 4 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.5 - 3.0