Montreal Canadiens at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2023-03-14 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 4 - 6 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (68% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 67.7%

MTL: 32.3%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.46

MTL: 2.39

Total Goals

Median: 6.9

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 53%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	22	16	6	72.7%	2.06	1	-3.94
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	43	39	4	90.7%	5.38	2	1.38

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PIT at home vs MTL: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-21	PIT 4 - 3 MTL	PIT	PIT
2025-12-20	MTL 4 - 0 PIT	MTL	MTL
2025-12-11	PIT 2 - 4 MTL	MTL	PIT
2024-12-12	MTL 2 - 9 PIT	PIT	PIT
2024-11-02	PIT 3 - 1 MTL	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	19	0	1.19
1	MTL	9	0	0.63
2	PIT	22	0	2.14
2	MTL	10	0	0.55
3	PIT	21	2	2.05
3	MTL	11	1	0.88

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 67.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 4 - 6 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.5 - 2.4