Tampa Bay Lightning at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2023-03-14 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 1 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

NJD: 53.2%

TBL: 46.8%

Expected Goals

NJD: 3.68

TBL: 3.08

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 51%

NJD

V. Vanecek

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NJD	V. Vanecek	30	26	4	86.7%	2.20	2	-1.80
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	23	22	1	95.7%	2.16	0	1.16

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • NJD at home vs TBL: 1-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-11	NJD 4 - 8 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-18	TBL 5 - 1 NJD	TBL	TBL
2025-10-11	TBL 3 - 5 NJD	NJD	NJD
2025-01-11	NJD 3 - 2 TBL	NJD	NJD
2024-11-16	TBL 4 - 0 NJD	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	15	0	0.89
1	TBL	16	0	0.64
2	NJD	15	0	0.75
2	TBL	8	1	0.65
3	NJD	10	0	0.53
3	TBL	15	1	0.90

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

New Jersey Devils 1 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.7 - 3.1