Vegas Golden Knights at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2023-03-14 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 5 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 53.2%

VGK: 46.8%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.24

VGK: 3.09

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

PHI

F. Sandstrom

VGK

J. Quick

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	F. Sandstrom	33	28	5	84.8%	3.66	3	-1.34
VGK	J. Quick	30	27	3	90.0%	4.04	2	1.04

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • PHI at home vs VGK: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-19	VGK 1 - 2 PHI	PHI	VGK
2025-12-11	PHI 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-01-02	VGK 5 - 2 PHI	VGK	VGK
2024-11-25	PHI 4 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK
2023-11-18	PHI 4 - 3 VGK	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	14	1	1.17
1	VGK	14	1	0.90
2	PHI	18	0	1.16
2	VGK	15	1	1.34
3	PHI	18	1	1.71
3	VGK	11	1	1.42

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 5 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1