Boston Bruins at Chicago Blackhawks NHL Predictions

2023-03-14 • United Center

Chicago Blackhawks 6 - 3 Boston Bruins

🚨 Upset Win (57% underdog)

Win Probability

CHI: 42.8%

BOS: 57.2%

Expected Goals

CHI: 2.78

BOS: 3.69

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 49%

CHI

Petr Mrazek - 18-31-4 | 0.907 SV% | 3.05 GAA

BOS

L. Ullmark

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CHI	Petr Mrazek	42	39	3	92.9%	3.89	1	0.89
BOS	L. Ullmark	29	23	6	79.3%	3.44	3	-2.56

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • CHI at home vs BOS: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-17	CHI 2 - 5 BOS	BOS	BOS
2025-10-09	BOS 4 - 3 CHI	BOS	BOS
2025-04-10	BOS 2 - 5 CHI	CHI	BOS
2024-12-04	CHI 2 - 4 BOS	BOS	CHI
2023-10-24	CHI 0 - 3 BOS	BOS	CHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CHI	12	0	0.87
1	BOS	12	1	1.14
2	CHI	14	1	1.27
2	BOS	21	0	1.38
3	CHI	9	2	1.31
3	BOS	20	0	1.37

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Chicago Blackhawks 6 - 3 Boston Bruins

Expected: 2.8 - 3.7