Dallas Stars at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2023-03-14 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 5 - 2 Dallas Stars

Win Probability

VAN: 62.7%

DAL: 37.3%

Expected Goals

VAN: 3.43

DAL: 3.27

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 50%

VAN

Thatcher Demko - 8-8-0 | 0.905 SV% | 2.72 GAA

DAL

M. Murray

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	Thatcher Demko	27	25	2	92.6%	2.36	0	0.36
DAL	M. Murray	19	14	5	73.7%	2.59	0	-2.41

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • VAN at home vs DAL: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-02	VAN 1 - 6 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-11-20	VAN 2 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-10-16	DAL 3 - 5 VAN	VAN	VAN
2025-04-08	DAL 5 - 6 VAN	VAN	VAN
2025-03-09	VAN 1 - 4 DAL	DAL	VAN

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	VAN	9	0.73
1	DAL	9	0.30
2	VAN	10	0.83
2	DAL	21	1.17
3	VAN	8	1.02
3	DAL	17	0.88

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Vancouver Canucks 5 - 2 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.4 - 3.3