Buffalo Sabres at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2023-03-15 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 5 - 4 Buffalo Sabres (SO)

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 45.5%

BUF: 54.5%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.48

BUF: 3.01

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 51%

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	29	25	4	86.2%	3.42	2	-0.58
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	41	35	6	85.4%	4.93	3	-1.07

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • WSH at home vs BUF: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	WSH 6 - 2 BUF	WSH	WSH
2026-03-12	BUF 1 - 2 WSH	WSH	BUF
2025-11-01	BUF 4 - 3 WSH	BUF	BUF
2025-03-30	WSH 5 - 8 BUF	BUF	WSH
2025-01-06	BUF 4 - 3 WSH	BUF	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	14	1	1.19
1	BUF	11	1	0.75
2	WSH	12	0	0.73
2	BUF	19	0	1.35
3	WSH	21	0	1.11
3	BUF	10	1	0.88
4	WSH	3	0	0.24
4	BUF	4	0	0.29
5	WSH	2	2	1.66
5	BUF	2	0	0.15

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 5 - 4 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.5 - 3.0