Colorado Avalanche at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2023-03-16 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 4 - 5 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 57.0%

COL: 43.0%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.62

COL: 3.51

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

OTT

Mads Sogaard - 1-1-0 | 0.800 SV% | 5.24 GAA

COL

J. Johansson

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Mads Sogaard	30	25	5	83.3%	4.08	3	-0.92
COL	J. Johansson	36	32	4	88.9%	3.57	2	-0.43

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • OTT at home vs COL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-28	OTT 5 - 2 COL	OTT	COL
2026-01-08	COL 8 - 2 OTT	COL	COL
2025-03-20	OTT 1 - 5 COL	COL	OTT
2024-10-27	COL 5 - 4 OTT	COL	COL
2024-01-16	OTT 4 - 7 COL	COL	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	16	1	1.38
1	COL	12	0	0.78
2	OTT	12	0	0.59
2	COL	21	1	2.09
3	OTT	20	1	1.60
3	COL	10	2	1.20

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 7.1

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 4 - 5 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.6 - 3.5