Tampa Bay Lightning at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2023-03-16 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 3 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

NJD: 52.5%

TBL: 47.5%

Expected Goals

NJD: 3.22

TBL: 3.22

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 53%

NJD

A. Schmid

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NJD	A. Schmid	27	22	5	81.5%	4.60	3	-0.40
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	38	34	4	89.5%	5.52	4	1.52

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • NJD at home vs TBL: 1-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-11	NJD 4 - 8 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-18	TBL 5 - 1 NJD	TBL	TBL
2025-10-11	TBL 3 - 5 NJD	NJD	NJD
2025-01-11	NJD 3 - 2 TBL	NJD	NJD
2024-11-16	TBL 4 - 0 NJD	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	13	0	0.83
1	TBL	17	0	0.94
2	NJD	18	1	1.84
2	TBL	12	1	1.25
3	NJD	18	1	1.54
3	TBL	3	0	0.14
4	NJD	4	1	0.34
4	TBL	4	0	0.35
5	NJD	3	1	0.98
5	TBL	3	2	1.92

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

New Jersey Devils 3 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.2 - 3.2