Dallas Stars at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2023-03-16 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 4 - 1 Dallas Stars

Win Probability

EDM: 58.5%

DAL: 41.5%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.76

DAL: 2.52

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Stuart Skinner	26	25	1	96.2%	2.77	2	1.77
DAL	Jake Oettinger	30	26	4	86.7%	4.24	2	0.24

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • EDM at home vs DAL: 7-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-12	DAL 7 - 2 EDM	DAL	DAL
2025-11-25	EDM 3 - 8 DAL	DAL	EDM
2025-11-04	DAL 4 - 3 EDM	DAL	DAL
2025-05-29	DAL 3 - 6 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-05-27	EDM 4 - 1 DAL	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	16	0	1.10
1	DAL	8	0	0.62
2	EDM	17	0	1.58
2	DAL	14	1	1.16
3	EDM	12	2	1.56
3	DAL	13	1	0.99

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 4 - 1 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.8 - 2.5