Dallas Stars at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2023-03-18 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 5 - 6 Dallas Stars (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)

Win Probability

CGY: 60.9%

DAL: 39.1%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.44

DAL: 2.83

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 48%

CGY

J. Markstrom

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	J. Markstrom	26	20	6	76.9%	3.00	2	-3.00
DAL	Jake Oettinger	38	33	5	86.8%	3.22	0	-1.78

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • CGY at home vs DAL: 6-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	DAL 4 - 3 CGY	DAL	DAL
2026-03-03	CGY 1 - 6 DAL	DAL	CGY
2025-11-22	CGY 3 - 2 DAL	CGY	CGY
2025-03-27	CGY 2 - 5 DAL	DAL	CGY
2025-03-06	DAL 3 - 2 CGY	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	14	0	0.76
1	DAL	13	1	1.22
2	CGY	19	0	1.51
2	DAL	13	0	0.85
3	CGY	13	0	0.50
3	DAL	8	1	0.73
4	CGY	5	0	0.46
4	DAL	3	0	0.20

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 5 - 6 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.4 - 2.8