New York Islanders at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2023-03-18 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 1 - 4 New York Islanders

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

SJS: 51.2%

NYI: 48.8%

Expected Goals

SJS: 2.96

NYI: 3.29

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 51%

SJS

K. Kahkonen

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	K. Kahkonen	33	29	4	87.9%	2.98	0	-1.02
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	30	29	1	96.7%	1.51	0	0.51

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • SJS at home vs NYI: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-07	SJS 1 - 2 NYI	NYI	NYI
2025-10-21	NYI 4 - 3 SJS	NYI	NYI
2025-03-08	SJS 2 - 4 NYI	NYI	NYI
2025-01-18	NYI 4 - 1 SJS	NYI	NYI
2024-03-07	SJS 2 - 7 NYI	NYI	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	SJS	9	0.33
1	NYI	15	1.02
2	SJS	11	0.75
2	NYI	20	1.21
3	SJS	17	0.43
3	NYI	12	0.74

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 1 - 4 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.0 - 3.3