Washington Capitals at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2023-03-19 • Xcel Energy Center

Minnesota Wild 5 - 3 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Win (60% underdog)

Win Probability

MIN: 40.3%

WSH: 59.7%

Expected Goals

MIN: 3.21

WSH: 3.17

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 42%

MIN

Marc-Andre Fleury - 14-9-1 | 0.899 SV% | 2.93 GAA

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Marc-Andre Fleury	36	33	3	91.7%	2.04	0	-0.96
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	40	35	5	87.5%	3.63	3	-1.37

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • MIN at home vs WSH: 5-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-16	MIN 5 - 0 WSH	MIN	WSH
2025-10-17	WSH 5 - 1 MIN	WSH	WSH
2025-03-27	MIN 4 - 2 WSH	MIN	MIN
2025-01-02	WSH 3 - 4 MIN	MIN	WSH
2024-01-23	MIN 5 - 3 WSH	MIN	MIN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	15	0	1.00
1	WSH	14	0	0.58
2	MIN	21	0	0.94
2	WSH	11	0	0.53
3	MIN	15	3	1.69
3	WSH	17	0	0.93

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Minnesota Wild 5 - 3 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.2 - 3.2