New Jersey Devils at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2023-03-19 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 5 New Jersey Devils

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 56.9%

NJD: 43.1%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.18

NJD: 3.14

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 72%

Over 6.5: 55%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

NJD

V. Vanecek

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	39	34	5	87.2%	3.92	2	-1.08
NJD	V. Vanecek	24	22	2	91.7%	2.59	0	0.59

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • TBL at home vs NJD: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-11	NJD 4 - 8 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-18	TBL 5 - 1 NJD	TBL	TBL
2025-10-11	TBL 3 - 5 NJD	NJD	NJD
2025-01-11	NJD 3 - 2 TBL	NJD	NJD
2024-11-16	TBL 4 - 0 NJD	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	14	0	0.92
1	NJD	13	0	0.64
2	TBL	14	0	0.64
2	NJD	21	1	1.84
3	TBL	14	0	1.03
3	NJD	16	1	1.43

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 5 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1