Ottawa Senators at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2023-03-20 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 2 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 55.1%

OTT: 44.9%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.37

OTT: 3.22

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

OTT

D. Ferguson

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	21	19	2	90.5%	2.18	2	0.18
OTT	D. Ferguson	49	48	1	98.0%	4.03	0	3.03

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • PIT at home vs OTT: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-26	OTT 3 - 4 PIT	PIT	OTT
2026-02-02	PIT 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-12-18	OTT 4 - 0 PIT	OTT	OTT
2025-03-30	PIT 1 - 0 OTT	PIT	PIT
2025-01-11	PIT 0 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	21	0	1.57
1	OTT	16	0	0.73
2	PIT	21	0	1.07
2	OTT	9	0	0.51
3	PIT	21	0	1.39
3	OTT	10	2	0.93

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 2 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.4 - 3.2