San Jose Sharks at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2023-03-20 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 5 - 4 San Jose Sharks (OT)

Win Probability

EDM: 66.7%

SJS: 33.3%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.43

SJS: 3.09

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 50%

EDM

Jack Campbell - 1-4-0 | 0.873 SV% | 4.50 GAA

SJS

J. Reimer

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Jack Campbell	32	28	4	87.5%	3.40	3	-0.60
SJS	J. Reimer	52	47	5	90.4%	7.00	7	2.00

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 79% • EDM at home vs SJS: 9-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-08	SJS 2 - 5 EDM	EDM	SJS
2026-03-17	EDM 5 - 3 SJS	EDM	EDM
2026-02-28	SJS 5 - 4 EDM	SJS	EDM
2026-01-29	EDM 4 - 3 SJS	EDM	EDM
2025-04-16	SJS 0 - 3 EDM	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	13	0	1.15
1	SJS	14	0	0.96
2	EDM	24	3	1.99
2	SJS	9	2	1.13
3	EDM	23	2	2.71
3	SJS	8	0	0.63
4	EDM	9	2	1.15
4	SJS	5	1	0.69

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 66.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 5 - 4 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 3.4 - 3.1