Carolina Hurricanes at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2023-03-21 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 2 - 3 Carolina Hurricanes

Win Probability

NYR: 38.1%

CAR: 61.9%

Expected Goals

NYR: 2.77

CAR: 3.19

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 53%

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	39	36	3	92.3%	2.71	3	-0.29
CAR	Frederik Andersen	31	29	2	93.5%	2.49	3	0.49

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • NYR at home vs CAR: 7-9

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-05	NYR 0 - 2 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-12-29	CAR 3 - 2 NYR	CAR	CAR
2025-11-26	CAR 2 - 4 NYR	NYR	CAR
2025-11-04	NYR 0 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-04-12	CAR 7 - 3 NYR	CAR	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	16	0	0.85
1	CAR	12	1	0.86
2	NYR	8	2	0.74
2	CAR	20	1	0.94
3	NYR	15	1	0.90
3	CAR	18	1	0.91

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 2 - 3 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 2.8 - 3.2