Columbus Blue Jackets at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2023-03-21 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 6 - 7 Columbus Blue Jackets (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 55.9%

CBJ: 44.1%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.35

CBJ: 3.08

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 51%

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

CBJ

Daniil Tarasov - 8-11-3 | 0.908 SV% | 3.18 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	39	32	7	82.1%	3.37	4	-3.63
CBJ	Daniil Tarasov	37	31	6	83.8%	3.65	0	-2.35

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • WSH at home vs CBJ: 7-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-14	CBJ 1 - 2 WSH	WSH	CBJ
2025-12-07	WSH 2 - 0 CBJ	WSH	WSH
2025-11-24	WSH 5 - 1 CBJ	WSH	WSH
2025-10-24	CBJ 1 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-04-13	WSH 1 - 4 CBJ	CBJ	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	28	0	1.59
1	CBJ	15	2	1.35
2	WSH	15	0	1.38
2	CBJ	14	1	1.01
3	WSH	11	0	0.57
3	CBJ	16	1	0.82
4	WSH	1	0	0.11
4	CBJ	1	0	0.19

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 13.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 6 - 7 Columbus Blue Jackets

Expected: 3.3 - 3.1