Florida Panthers at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2023-03-21 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 6 - 3 Florida Panthers

Win Probability

PHI: 56.6%

FLA: 43.4%

Expected Goals

PHI: 2.98

FLA: 3.29

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 54%

PHI

C. Hart

FLA

A. Lyon

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	C. Hart	44	41	3	93.2%	5.03	3	2.03
FLA	A. Lyon	24	18	6	75.0%	3.70	4	-2.30

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • PHI at home vs FLA: 4-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-26	FLA 2 - 4 PHI	PHI	FLA
2025-10-13	PHI 5 - 2 FLA	PHI	PHI
2025-10-09	FLA 2 - 1 PHI	FLA	FLA
2025-01-13	PHI 4 - 3 FLA	PHI	FLA
2024-12-05	PHI 5 - 7 FLA	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	10	0	0.90
1	FLA	25	1	2.19
2	PHI	17	2	1.38
2	FLA	15	0	0.71
3	PHI	5	2	1.42
3	FLA	22	2	2.13

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 6 - 3 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.0 - 3.3