Minnesota Wild at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2023-03-21 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 1 - 2 Minnesota Wild (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

NJD: 51.7%

MIN: 48.3%

Expected Goals

NJD: 3.40

MIN: 3.04

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 53%

NJD

V. Vanecek

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NJD	V. Vanecek	29	27	2	93.1%	3.31	1	1.31
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	48	47	1	97.9%	4.51	1	3.51

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • NJD at home vs MIN: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-12	MIN 2 - 5 NJD	NJD	MIN
2025-10-22	NJD 4 - 1 MIN	NJD	NJD
2025-03-31	NJD 3 - 2 MIN	NJD	NJD
2025-03-29	MIN 2 - 5 NJD	NJD	MIN
2023-11-02	MIN 3 - 5 NJD	NJD	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	13	1	1.16
1	MIN	13	1	1.05
2	NJD	16	0	1.05
2	MIN	19	0	0.86
3	NJD	25	0	1.60
3	MIN	12	0	0.74
4	NJD	6	0	0.70
4	MIN	6	0	0.66

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

New Jersey Devils 1 - 2 Minnesota Wild

Expected: 3.4 - 3.0