Ottawa Senators at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2023-03-21 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 2 - 1 Ottawa Senators

Win Probability

BOS: 62.6%

OTT: 37.4%

Expected Goals

BOS: 2.47

OTT: 3.20

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 46%

BOS

L. Ullmark

OTT

Mads Sogaard - 1-1-0 | 0.800 SV% | 5.24 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	L. Ullmark	41	40	1	97.6%	2.96	1	1.96
OTT	Mads Sogaard	35	33	2	94.3%	4.02	2	2.02

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 63% • BOS at home vs OTT: 6-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-21	BOS 2 - 6 OTT	OTT	BOS
2025-11-13	OTT 5 - 3 BOS	OTT	OTT
2025-11-06	BOS 3 - 2 OTT	BOS	OTT
2025-10-27	OTT 7 - 2 BOS	OTT	OTT
2025-03-13	OTT 6 - 3 BOS	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	13	2	1.38
1	OTT	18	1	0.91
2	BOS	18	0	1.02
2	OTT	27	0	1.74
3	BOS	15	0	1.62
3	OTT	8	0	0.31

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 2 - 1 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 2.5 - 3.2